Venezuela’s Historic Economic and Political Instability: Does Regime Change, Change Anything?

By: Ornella Romero-Garcia 

Editor: Bronwen Smith 

Editor-in-Chief: Grace Samuel 

The views expressed are the author's own and do not reflect the views of the International Relations Society. 

Wikimedia commons, photo credit Ricardo Patino (Creative Commons 4.0). 

Venezuela’s oil industry has marked all areas of life in the country, from political structures, economic life, and civic life. The country’s historic instability has continued into the 21^st century with soaring poverty rates, a crisis of forced displacement, and violent repression against civilians and political opponents. The new year in Venezuela started with a forceful regime change, and will likely continue the legacy of authoritarian measures, now backed by the most powerful state in the world.  

Being home to the largest oil reserves in the West has defined Venezuelan history, economy, and political structures. Following the discovery of oil in Venezuela in 1922, foreign companies actively produced oil in the dictatorship-backed industry. This allowed Venezuela to become the second-largest exporter of oil by the end of the 1920s, which represented over 90% of total exports. This arguably led to Venezuela’s transition to a ‘Petro-state,’ a country that is highly dependent on fossil fuel income, with concentrated power and embedded corruption. 

By 1976, ex-president Carlos Andrés Pérez had nationalised the oil industry, introducing Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA), the nation’s state-owned oil and gas company. During his second term in February 1989, the collapsing oil prices and massive foreign debts led Pérez to seek a financial bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), defying his 1988 election campaignthat rejected neo-liberal policies. The economic reforms, designed to secure IMF support for new loans, included the rise of gas prices to match international prices, an increase of 30% meant bus fares also increased. Then, the Caracazo began, the streets of Caracas (the capital city of Venezuela) erupted in 4 days of violent protests and looting, with forceful military and police responses. To this day, the official death toll of 300 has been contested for decades since the Caracazo, as estimates indicateup to 3,000 people.  

In 1998, the beginning of the ‘Bolivarian Revolution’ would shape Venezuela’s political landscape for the following decades. During Hugo Chávez’s presidency (1998-2013), Venezuela witnessed radical shifts to its social policy with the introduction of‘Bolivarian Missions,’ a social welfare program aiming to expand access to food, housing, healthcare, and education, which was subsidised using Venezuela’s oil revenues. Despite reducing poverty by up to 20%, Chávez’s expensive missions were not adequately delivered due to a combination of Venezuela’s reduced oil production and the 2008 recession, declining the available revenue used to fund the missions.  

Chávez’s presidency is believed to have established the correct environment in which the destruction of checks and balances, termination of competitive elections, suspension of political rights and civil liberties could occur. In essence, 1999 marked the beginning of an increasingly authoritarian regime, started by a new Chavista constitution, despite it being unauthorised by the National Congress. 

In 2013, after Chávez’s death, Nicolás Maduro gained power as interim president and established his presidency after the 2013 elections with a narrow 50.6% of the vote. Since the mid 2010s, Venezuela has faced its most critical humanitarian crisis and economic decline, which is believed to have been partly caused by U.S. sanctions that resulted in declining oil production and severe underinvestment in the oil sector. The consequences of authoritarian rule have resulted in a lack of access to basic goods, including food and medicine, ending 2024 with nearly 82% of the population living in poverty (25 million out of the total population of 31.8 million). In attempts to flee violence and poverty, almost 8 million Venezuelans have been forcibly displaced, with 6.5 million seeking refuge in neighbouring Latin American countries. 

The 2025 Freedom House report labelled Venezuela ‘not free,’ as the 2024 elections failed to adequately evidence his victory, accompanied by the Supreme Tribunal Courts of Justice support for Maduro’s re-election. Opposition coalitions contested the vote by publishing over 80% of the voting tallies online, which showed opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez had won a majority with 67% of the vote. Political opposition and anti-Maduro protesters have faced violent repression; many have been harassed, attacked, imprisoned and impeded from participating in the political process. Figures from the human rights organisation Foro Penal estimated a total of 863 political prisoners at the end of 2025.  

Throughout 2025, growing tensions between Venezuela and the United States have erupted into a U.S. intervention in the country. Between January 2025 and December 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump had designated Venezuelan criminal groups as terrorist organisations, accusing Venezuelan leaders of overseeing these, although the existence of one of these is widely contested.  

After seizing 5 Venezuelan oil tankers and killing over 100 in the process, U.S. airstrikes hit Caracas during the early hours of the 3^rd of January, leading to the abduction and arrest of Maduro, who now faces drug-trafficking charges in the U.S. In Trump’s words, the U.S. currently “runs” Venezuela with interim President Delcy Rodriguez, the previous vice-president under Maduro, devaluing the Venezuelan fight for freedom of political opposition. The Trump administration currently demands unrestricted access to Venezuela’s oil, encouraging up to 20 U.S. oil companies to take part in a costly investment of $100 billion. While some political prisoners have been freed, the illegal attack on Venezuela threatens to further destabilise the country and possibly neighbouring nations. The historic precedent of U.S. intervention in Latin America led to civil wars (Guatemala), the establishment of dictatorships (Chile), all of which do not foster any prosperity for the people of Venezuela; who’s elected leaders and demands are sidelined in the U.S. interest of acquisition of the Venezuelan oil industry.